论文标题

简单计数实验中的意义和复制:分布无效假设检验

Significance and Replication in simple counting experiments: Distributional Null Hypothesis Testing

论文作者

Costello, Fintan, Watts, Paul

论文摘要

零假设的显着性检验(NHST)长期以来一直是心理学作为一门科学的核心重要性,指导理论的发展以及基于循证干预和决策的应用。然而,近年来,人们对NHST的严重问题越来越认识。这种意识导致提出的建议限制了NHST技术的使用,放弃这些技术并转向替代统计方法,甚至完全禁止使用NHST。这些建议还为时过早,因为由于历史上有偶然的,根本没有动力,并且从根本上不正确的选择,因此出现了NHST的问题:选择:针对点形式的NULL NULL假设的NHST测试。使用简单的计数实验,我们详细介绍了一种替代性,更通用的方法:针对分布空的测试。我们表明,这种分布方法在数学,实际和实验上都是良好的动机,并且使用分配零以解决标准点形式NHST方法的各种问题,避免了与样本量有关的问题,并允许对给定实验结果复制的可能性进行连贯的估计。我们不应该放弃NHST,而应使用最通用形式的NHST方法,而不是分布形式而不是零用的假设。

Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) has long been of central importance to psychology as a science, guiding theory development and underlying the application of evidence-based intervention and decision-making. Recent years, however, have seen growing awareness of serious problems with NHST as it is typically used; this awareness has led to proposals to limit the use of NHST techniques, to abandon these techniques and move to alternative statistical approaches, or even to ban the use of NHST entirely. These proposals are premature, because the observed problems with NHST arise as a consequence of an historically contingent, essentially unmotivated, and fundamentally incorrect, choice: that of NHST testing against point-form null hypotheses. Using simple counting experiments we give a detailed presentation of an alternative, more general approach: that of testing against distributional nulls. We show that this distributional approach is well-motivated mathematically, practically and experimentally, and that the use of distributional nulls addresses various problems with the standard point-form NHST approach, avoiding issues to do with sample size and allowing a coherent estimation of the probability of replication of a given experimental result. Rather than abandoning NHST, we should use the NHST approach in its most general form, with distributional rather than point-form null hypotheses.

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