论文标题

考虑实时乘客负载预测,用于混合电动城市巴士的基于云的能源管理策略

A Cloud-Based Energy Management Strategy for Hybrid Electric City Bus Considering Real-Time Passenger Load Prediction

论文作者

Shi, Junzhe, Xu, Bin, Zhou, Xingyu, Hou, Jun

论文摘要

近年来,电动城市巴士因其低温室气体排放,低噪音水平等而受到​​欢迎。与乘用车不同,城市公交车的重量在船上乘客的情况下差异很大。在分析了电池老化和乘客负载对最佳能源管理策略的重要性之后,本研究将乘客负载预测引入了混合电动城市巴士能源管理问题中,这在现有文献中没有很好地研究。在乘客负载预测中比较了平均模型,决策树,梯度提升决策树和神经网络模型。由于其最佳准确性和高稳定性,选择了梯度提升决策树模型。鉴于预测的乘客负载,动态编程算法通过优化利用云技术的电池老化和能量使用来确定超级电容器和电池的最佳功率需求。然后,在动态编程结果上进行规则提取,该规则将实时加载到车载控制器上以处理预测错误和不确定性。拟议的基于云的动态编程和规则提取框架和乘客负载预测分别显示出4%和11%的巴士运营成本分别在非高峰和高峰时段。拟议框架的运营成本不到真正的乘客负载信息的动态编程的1%。

Electric city bus gains popularity in recent years for its low greenhouse gas emission, low noise level, etc. Different from a passenger car, the weight of a city bus varies significantly with different amounts of onboard passengers. After analyzing the importance of battery aging and passenger load effects on an optimal energy management strategy, this study introduces the passenger load prediction into the hybrid-electric city buses energy management problem, which is not well studied in the existing literature. The average model, Decision Tree, Gradient Boost Decision Tree, and Neural Networks models are compared in the passenger load prediction. The Gradient Boost Decision Tree model is selected due to its best accuracy and high stability. Given the predicted passenger load, a dynamic programming algorithm determines the optimal power demand for supercapacitor and battery by optimizing the battery aging and energy usage leveraging cloud techniques. Then, rule extraction is conducted on dynamic programming results, and the rule is real-time loaded to the vehicle onboard controller to handle prediction errors and uncertainties. The proposed cloud-based Dynamic Programming and rule extraction framework with the passenger load prediction show 4% and 11% lower bus operating costs in off-peak and peak hours, respectively. The operating cost by the proposed framework is less than 1% of the dynamic programming with the true passenger load information.

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