论文标题
控制Covid-19需要多少测试和社会距离？一些基于年龄分化的隔室模型的见解
How much testing and social distancing is required to control COVID-19? Some insight based on an age-differentiated compartmental model
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，我们提供有关控制Covid-19所需的测试和社会距离的见解。为此，我们开发了一种隔离模型，该模型解释了该疾病的关键方面：1）孵化时间，2）年龄依赖性症状严重程度，以及3）测试和住院延迟；该模型的参数是根据医学证据和具体性选择的，适合德国的情况。然后，通过在开放环和模型预测控制框架中解决最佳控制问题来确定最佳的质量测试和年龄依赖性社会抗态政策。我们的目标是最大程度地减少测试和/或社交距离，直到对可用的重症监护病房的数量限制下来的群豁免权为止。我们发现不可避免的是早期和短暂的锁定，但在接下来的几个月中可以缓慢放松。
In this paper, we provide insights on how much testing and social distancing is required to control COVID-19. To this end, we develop a compartmental model that accounts for key aspects of the disease: 1) incubation time, 2) age-dependent symptom severity, and 3) testing and hospitalization delays; the model's parameters are chosen based on medical evidence, and, for concreteness, adapted to the German situation. Then, optimal mass-testing and age-dependent social-distancing policies are determined by solving optimal control problems both in open loop and within a model predictive control framework. We aim to minimize testing and/or social distancing until herd immunity sets in under a constraint on the number of available intensive care units. We find that an early and short lockdown is inevitable but can be slowly relaxed over the following months.
