论文标题
新颖的成分数据的灰色模型，用于结构预测北极原油进口
Novel Compositional Data's Grey Model for Structurally Forecasting Arctic Crude Oil Import
论文作者
论文摘要
北极地区的原油储备丰富。冰融化使得可以中间进入北极原油及其运输。本文提出了一种新颖的组成数据的灰色模型，以预测北极原油进口。首先，根据Aitchison几何形状定义了多元组成数据的一般累积操作序列，然后以组成数据向量的形式获得新型模型。其次，本文研究了模型的最小平方参数估计。将新型模型推导并选择为溶液的时间反应表达。第三，本文将新型模型注入传统的灰色模型，以提高其鲁棒性。引入差异进化算法以确定一般矩阵的最佳值。最后，提供了两个验证示例，以通过将新型模型与其他现有模型进行比较，以确认新型模型的有效性，然后在预测中国的原油进口结构之前。结果表明，新型模型在短期预测中提供了所有原油案例的性能。因此，通过使用新模型，中国的发展参数为0.5214，新型模型的确定因素为0.5999，这意味着中国原油进口结构正在改变。具体而言，从北极地区进口的原油数量在未来6年中显然正在增加，显示了足够的证明北极地区拥有的边缘：丰富的原油储备和缩短运输距离。
The reserve of crude oil in the Arctic area is abundant. Ice melting is making it possible to have intermediate access to the Arctic crude oil and its transportation. A novel compositional data's grey model is proposed in this paper to structurally forecast Arctic crude oil import. Firstly, the general accumulative operation sequence of multivariate compositional data is defined according to Aitchison geometry, then obtaining the novel model with the form of the compositional data vectors. Secondly, this paper studies the least square parameter estimation of the model. The novel model is deduced and selected as the time-response expression of the solution. Thirdly, this paper infuses the novel model with traditional grey model to improve its robustness. Differential Evolution algorithm is introduced to determine the optimal value of the general matrix. Lastly, two validation examples are provided for confirming the effectiveness of the novel model by comparing it with other existing models, before being employed to forecast the crude oil import structure in China. The results show that the novel model provides better performance in all crude oil cases in short-term forecasting. Therefore, by using the new model, China's development parameter is 0.5214 and Determination Factor of the novel model is 0.5999, which means that the crude oil import structure of China is being changed. Specifically, the amount of crude oil imported from the Arctic area is obviously increasing in the next 6 years, showing sufficient proof of the edge owned by the Arctic area: abundant crude oil reserves and shortening transportation distance.
