论文标题
估计在德国共同19-19大流行期间有效的感染死亡率
Estimating effective infection fatality rates during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany
论文作者
论文摘要
2019年冠状病毒病（IFR）（IFR）（IFR）2019（Covid-19）是该大流行中讨论最多的数字之一。这项工作使用了德国共同的-19监视数据和特定年龄段的IFR估计，这项工作研究了大流行过程中有效IFR的时间依赖性变化。 Three different methods for estimating (effective) IFRs are presented: (a) population-averaged IFRs based on the assumption that the infection risk is independent of age and time, (b) effective IFRs based on the assumption that the age distribution of confirmed cases approximately reflects the age distribution of infected individuals, and (c) effective IFRs accounting for age- and time-dependent dark figures of infections.结果表明，随着确认病例和估计感染的年龄分布在大流行过程中的变化，德国有效的IFR估计会随时间变化。特别是在2020年春季和秋冬的第一和第二波感染中，确认病例的年龄分布向老年人组发生了明显变化，从而导致较大的有效IFR估计。估计在第一波过程中有效IFR的暂时增加是较小的，但在调整年龄和时间依赖的黑暗数字时仍保留。与观察到的CFR的有效IFR的比较表明，观察到的死亡率的大幅度依赖性变异性的很大一部分可以通过感染年龄分布的变化来解释。此外，在第一次感染波之后显而易见，有效的IFR和观察到的CFR之间存在消失的差距，而在第二波中可以观察到中等增加的间隙。有必要进行进一步的研究以获得及时分层的IFR估计。
The infection fatality rate (IFR) of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is one of the most discussed figures in the context of this pandemic. Using German COVID-19 surveillance data and age-group specific IFR estimates from multiple international studies, this work investigates time-dependent variations in effective IFR over the course of the pandemic. Three different methods for estimating (effective) IFRs are presented: (a) population-averaged IFRs based on the assumption that the infection risk is independent of age and time, (b) effective IFRs based on the assumption that the age distribution of confirmed cases approximately reflects the age distribution of infected individuals, and (c) effective IFRs accounting for age- and time-dependent dark figures of infections. Results show that effective IFRs in Germany are estimated to vary over time, as the age distributions of confirmed cases and estimated infections are changing during the course of the pandemic. In particular during the first and second waves of infections in spring and autumn/winter 2020, there has been a pronounced shift in the age distribution of confirmed cases towards older age groups, resulting in larger effective IFR estimates. The temporary increase in effective IFR during the first wave is estimated to be smaller but still remains when adjusting for age- and time-dependent dark figures. A comparison of effective IFRs with observed CFRs indicates that a substantial fraction of the time-dependent variability in observed mortality can be explained by changes in the age distribution of infections. Furthermore, a vanishing gap between effective IFRs and observed CFRs is apparent after the first infection wave, while a moderately increasing gap can be observed during the second wave. Further research is warranted to obtain timely age-stratified IFR estimates.
