论文标题

Covid-19期间医院中个人防护设备使用的预测

Prediction of Personal Protective Equipment Use in Hospitals During COVID-19

论文作者

Furman, Eugene, Cressman, Alex, Shin, Saeha, Kuznetsov, Alexey, Razak, Fahad, Verma, Amol, Diamant, Adam

论文摘要

自从COVID-19大流行病开始以来,对个人防护设备(PPE)的需求(PPE)(例如手术口罩,手套和礼服)的需求已大大增加。在医院环境中,需要医务人员和患者穿PPE。由于这些设施恢复了定期操作,因此将要求工作人员始终穿PPE,而在医疗程序中将要求其他PPE。这将增加对预测PPE使用并采购其供应的问题的医院的压力。为了应对这一挑战,我们提出了一种预测对PPE需求的方法。具体而言,我们使用多个独立的队列对患者的录取对患者进行了建模。每个队列都代表一类具有相似治疗计划和住院时间的患者。通过估计每个类的总工作负载,我们使用当前PPE指南来得出指定时间范围内所需的PPE预期量的封闭式估计。我们将方法应用于2010年4月至2019年11月加拿大多伦多圣迈克尔医院的22,039名患者的数据集。我们发现手套和手术口罩约占预测PPE使用情况的90%。我们还发现,尽管对手套的需求完全是由患者实践者的相互作用驱动的,但预测对手术口罩的需求中有86%归因于医生在不与患者相互作用时需要佩戴它们的要求。

Demand for Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) such as surgical masks, gloves, and gowns has increased significantly since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. In hospital settings, both medical staff and patients are required to wear PPE. As these facilities resume regular operations, staff will be required to wear PPE at all times while additional PPE will be mandated during medical procedures. This will put increased pressure on hospitals which have had problems predicting PPE usage and sourcing its supply. To meet this challenge, we propose an approach to predict demand for PPE. Specifically, we model the admission of patients to a medical department using multiple independent queues. Each queue represents a class of patients with similar treatment plans and hospital length-of-stay. By estimating the total workload of each class, we derive closed-form estimates for the expected amount of PPE required over a specified time horizon using current PPE guidelines. We apply our approach to a data set of 22,039 patients admitted to the general internal medicine department at St. Michael's hospital in Toronto, Canada from April 2010 to November 2019. We find that gloves and surgical masks represent approximately 90% of predicted PPE usage. We also find that while demand for gloves is driven entirely by patient-practitioner interactions, 86% of the predicted demand for surgical masks can be attributed to the requirement that medical practitioners will need to wear them when not interacting with patients.

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