论文标题
从一致的估计器(DICE)开发和部署医院级别Covid-19的相关患者需求间隔的开发和部署
The Development and Deployment of a Model for Hospital-level COVID-19 Associated Patient Demand Intervals from Consistent Estimators (DICE)
论文作者
论文摘要
医院通常通过将其区域需求的历史份额与总区域需求的预测相结合,从而对其服务进行预测。提供预测间隔(而不是点估计)的需求预测可能会促进更好的管理决策,尤其是在需求超额和未成年人与高,不对称成本有关时。通常可作为泊松随机变量的区域预测,例如,由于流行病(例如COVID-19)需要住院的人数。但是,即使在这种共同环境中,在特定机构应该期望的地区的患者中,也没有概率,一致的计算可观预测。我们引入了这样的预测,骰子(来自一致估计器的需求间隔)。我们在Unite州的Covid-19的“第二波浪潮”中描述了在加利福尼亚州的一个学术医疗中心的发展和部署。我们表明,在温和的假设下,骰子是一致的,适合与完美,无偏见的区域预测一起使用。我们评估了来自大型学术医学中心以及合成数据的经验数据的性能。
Hospitals commonly project demand for their services by combining their historical share of regional demand with forecasts of total regional demand. Hospital-specific forecasts of demand that provide prediction intervals, rather than point estimates, may facilitate better managerial decisions, especially when demand overage and underage are associated with high, asymmetric costs. Regional forecasts of patient demand are commonly available as a Poisson random variable, e.g., for the number of people requiring hospitalization due to an epidemic such as COVID-19. However, even in this common setting, no probabilistic, consistent, computationally tractable forecast is available for the fraction of patients in a region that a particular institution should expect. We introduce such a forecast, DICE (Demand Intervals from Consistent Estimators). We describe its development and deployment at an academic medical center in California during the `second wave' of COVID-19 in the Unite States. We show that DICE is consistent under mild assumptions and suitable for use with perfect, biased, unbiased regional forecasts. We evaluate its performance on empirical data from a large academic medical center as well as on synthetic data.