论文标题

物理指导的机器学习方法

Physics Guided Machine Learning Methods for Hydrology

论文作者

Khandelwal, Ankush, Xu, Shaoming, Li, Xiang, Jia, Xiaowei, Stienbach, Michael, Duffy, Christopher, Nieber, John, Kumar, Vipin

论文摘要

由于流量生成背后的多个非线性物理机制之间的复杂相互作用,流量预测是水文学领域的关键挑战之一。尽管基于物理的模型植根于对物理过程的丰富理解,但仍然存在一个显着的性能差距,可以通过利用机器学习的最新进展来解决这一问题。这项工作的目的是将我们对水文学中的物理过程和约束的理解纳入机器学习算法,从而弥合性能差距,同时与传统数据驱动的方法相比,减少了对大量数据的需求。特别是,我们提出了一种基于LSTM的深度学习体系结构,该体系结构与SWAT(土壤和水评估工具)相结合,这是一种水文模型,如今已广泛使用。该方法的关键思想是建模将天气驱动程序连接到流量流的辅助中间过程,而不是直接映射天气变量的径流,这是没有物理洞察力的深度学习体系结构。该方法的功效正在对位于明尼苏达州东南部root河流域南部的几个小流域进行分析。除了关于径流的观察数据外,该方法还利用了SWAT生成的200年合成数据集,以改善性能,同时减少收敛时间。在本研究的早期阶段中,正在使用更简单的物理学引导的深度学习体系结构来实现对物理和机器学习耦合的系统理解。随着在本实现中引入更加复杂性,该框架将能够概括为存在空间异质性的更复杂的情况。

Streamflow prediction is one of the key challenges in the field of hydrology due to the complex interplay between multiple non-linear physical mechanisms behind streamflow generation. While physically-based models are rooted in rich understanding of the physical processes, a significant performance gap still remains which can be potentially addressed by leveraging the recent advances in machine learning. The goal of this work is to incorporate our understanding of physical processes and constraints in hydrology into machine learning algorithms, and thus bridge the performance gap while reducing the need for large amounts of data compared to traditional data-driven approaches. In particular, we propose an LSTM based deep learning architecture that is coupled with SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), an hydrology model that is in wide use today. The key idea of the approach is to model auxiliary intermediate processes that connect weather drivers to streamflow, rather than directly mapping runoff from weather variables which is what a deep learning architecture without physical insight will do. The efficacy of the approach is being analyzed on several small catchments located in the South Branch of the Root River Watershed in southeast Minnesota. Apart from observation data on runoff, the approach also leverages a 200-year synthetic dataset generated by SWAT to improve the performance while reducing convergence time. In the early phases of this study, simpler versions of the physics guided deep learning architectures are being used to achieve a system understanding of the coupling of physics and machine learning. As more complexity is introduced into the present implementation, the framework will be able to generalize to more sophisticated cases where spatial heterogeneity is present.

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