论文标题

关于政治运动的资源分配

On the Resource Allocation for Political Campaigns

论文作者

Morales, Sebastián, Thraves, Charles

论文摘要

在竞选活动中,候选人必须决定如何在一个国家的地区最佳地分配他们的努力/资源。结果,选举的结果将取决于球员的策略和选民的偏好。在这项工作中,我们提出了一个零和游戏,其中两个候选人决定如何在一组地区投资固定资源,同时考虑其大小和偏见。我们探索多数制度(MS)以及选举学院(EC)投票系统。在确定性模型中,我们在MS下证明了平衡的存在和独特性。此外,在修复区域的子集并放松非负投资约束时,还提供了封闭式表达式。对于随机案例,我们使用Monte Carlo模拟来计算玩家的回报,以及其渐变和Hessian。对于EC,鉴于纯策略缺乏平衡,我们提出了一种迭代算法,以在单纯晶格的一部分中找到混合策略中的平衡。我们说明了两个选举系统下的数值实例以及对比参与者的均衡策略。最后,我们表明极化会导致候选人专注于MS下的较大区域,而候选人集中在EC下的挥杆状态上。

In an election campaign, candidates must decide how to optimally allocate their efforts/resources optimally among the regions of a country. As a result, the outcome of the election will depend on the players' strategies and the voters' preferences. In this work, we present a zero-sum game where two candidates decide how to invest a fixed resource in a set of regions, while considering their sizes and biases. We explore the Majority System (MS) as well as the Electoral College (EC) voting systems. We prove equilibrium existence and uniqueness under MS in a deterministic model; in addition, their closed form expressions are provided when fixing the subset of regions and relaxing the non-negative investing constraint. For the stochastic case, we use Monte Carlo simulations to compute the players' payoffs, together with its gradient and hessian. For the EC, given the lack of Equilibrium in pure strategies, we propose an iterative algorithm to find Equilibrium in mixed strategies in a subset of the simplex lattice. We illustrate numerical instances under both election systems, and contrast players' equilibrium strategies. Finally, we show that polarization induces candidates to focus on larger regions with negative biases under MS, whereas candidates concentrate on swing states under EC.

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