论文标题
测试乘数：恐惧与遏制
The Testing Multiplier: Fear vs Containment
论文作者
论文摘要
我研究了一种新型疾病期间测试的经济影响。我提出了一个模型，其中测试允许隔离感染，并为药物提供有关疾病患病率和致死性的信息。其他测试可减少疾病的杀伤力，但可能会增加感知的感染风险。结果，更多的测试可能会增加疾病死亡的风险 - 即“斯托克恐惧” - 尽管有改善的健康结果，但仍会导致经济活动下降。出现了两个主要见解。首先，增加的测试对经济有益，如果在足够大的规模上进行，但不一定是其他情况。其次，跨年龄段的异质风险感知可以带来重要的总体后果。对于模型的SARS-COV-2校准，年轻人和老年人的异质风险感知使GDP损失减轻了50％，并将死亡人数减少了30％，相对于所有个人都具有相同风险的感觉。
I study the economic effects of testing during the outbreak of a novel disease. I propose a model where testing permits isolation of the infected and provides agents with information about the prevalence and lethality of the disease. Additional testing reduces the perceived lethality of the disease, but might increase the perceived risk of infection. As a result, more testing could increase the perceived risk of dying from the disease - i.e. "stoke fear" - and cause a fall in economic activity, despite improving health outcomes. Two main insights emerge. First, increased testing is beneficial to the economy and pays for itself if performed at a sufficiently large scale, but not necessarily otherwise. Second, heterogeneous risk perceptions across age-groups can have important aggregate consequences. For a SARS-CoV-2 calibration of the model, heterogeneous risk perceptions across young and old individuals mitigate GDP losses by 50% and reduce the death toll by 30% relative to a scenario in which all individuals have the same perceptions of risk.
