论文标题
自我实现的预言，准非熟练性和财富不平等
Self-Fulfilling Prophecies, Quasi Non-Ergodicity and Wealth Inequality
论文作者
论文摘要
我们构建了一个交换经济模型，在该模型中，代理商在可观察的信号上进行交易资产，其概率取决于公众舆论。我们的模型中的代理偶尔会更换，每个人都会根据观察到的结果更新信念。我们表明，观察到的信号的分布是通过准非共性过程描述的，人们继续永远彼此不同意。这些分歧产生了巨大的财富不平等，这些不平等来自财富动态的乘法性质，这使得成功的大胆赌注盈利。
We construct a model of an exchange economy in which agents trade assets contingent on an observable signal, the probability of which depends on public opinion. The agents in our model are replaced occasionally and each person updates beliefs in response to observed outcomes. We show that the distribution of the observed signal is described by a quasi-non-ergodic process and that people continue to disagree with each other forever. These disagreements generate large wealth inequalities that arise from the multiplicative nature of wealth dynamics which make successful bold bets highly profitable.
