论文标题
印度地区未来的气候变化预测
Future Climate Change Projections over the Indian Region
论文作者
论文摘要
迄今为止，对印度地区的气候变化和未来预测的影响评估依赖于单一的区域气候模型（RCM） - 例如，英国Hadley Center的Precis RCM。尽管这些评估为各种报告提供了投入（例如，INCCA 2010； NATCOMM2 2012），但由于区域规模的气候预测中的巨大不确定性，从多个RCM中获得的气候预测集合很重要。在不同可感知的社会经济情景下驱动的多RCM预测的集合需要捕获可能的增长途径，并提供未来气候的行为以及对各种生物物理系统和经济领域的影响。 印度热带气象学研究所（CCCR-IITM）的气候变化研究中心已经在南亚的区域气候和季风降低了高度分辨率的降低缩放的投影，直到2100年，直到2100年，通过在50 km Horize的范围内，以多种范围的范围来驱动气候变化（IPCC），以换取气候变化（IPCC），以范围内的范围（ipcc-regcm4）范围范围（ICTP-Regregcm4），以范围内的范围（ICTP-Regregcm4）级别的范围（ICTP-Regrigcm4）。来自耦合模型比较项目第5阶段（CMIP5）的全球大气 - 海洋耦合模型。未来的预测基于IPCC的三个表示浓度途径（RCP）方案（Viz。，RCP2.6，RCP4.5，RCP8.5）。
Assessments of impacts of climate change and future projections over the Indian region, have so far relied on a single regional climate model (RCM) - eg., the PRECIS RCM of the Hadley Centre, UK. While these assessments have provided inputs to various reports (e.g., INCCA 2010; NATCOMM2 2012), it is important to have an ensemble of climate projections drawn from multiple RCMs due to large uncertainties in regional-scale climate projections. Ensembles of multi-RCM projections driven under different perceivable socio-economic scenarios are required to capture the probable path of growth, and provide the behavior of future climate and impacts on various biophysical systems and economic sectors dependent on such systems. The Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (CCCR-IITM) has generated an ensemble of high resolution downscaled projections of regional climate and monsoon over South Asia until 2100 for the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC)using a RCM (ICTP-RegCM4) at 50 km horizontal resolution, by driving the regional model with lateral and lower boundary conditions from multiple global atmosphere-ocean coupled models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The future projections are based on three Representation Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (viz., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) of the IPCC.
