论文标题
预期预测:基于交互学习的动作条件预测方法
Prediction by Anticipation: An Action-Conditional Prediction Method based on Interaction Learning
论文作者
论文摘要
在自动驾驶(AD)中,准确预测环境变化可以有效地提高安全性和舒适性。但是,由于交通参与者之间的复杂相互作用,很难为长时间的地平线实现准确的预测。为了应对这一挑战,我们提出了预期的预测,该预测是根据潜在概率生成过程的相互作用,其中一些车辆部分响应其他车辆的预期运动而部分移动。在此观点下,可以将连续的数据帧分解为从动作条件分布的顺序样本中,该样本有效地将其推广到更广泛的动作和驱动情况。我们提出的预测模型是自然界的变异贝叶斯人,以最大程度地提高了该条件分布的对数可能性的下限(ELBO)。通过著名的AD数据集NGSIM I-80和Argoverse对我们的方法进行评估,在准确性和概括方面都对当前最新技术的评估显着改善。
In autonomous driving (AD), accurately predicting changes in the environment can effectively improve safety and comfort. Due to complex interactions among traffic participants, however, it is very hard to achieve accurate prediction for a long horizon. To address this challenge, we propose prediction by anticipation, which views interaction in terms of a latent probabilistic generative process wherein some vehicles move partly in response to the anticipated motion of other vehicles. Under this view, consecutive data frames can be factorized into sequential samples from an action-conditional distribution that effectively generalizes to a wider range of actions and driving situations. Our proposed prediction model, variational Bayesian in nature, is trained to maximize the evidence lower bound (ELBO) of the log-likelihood of this conditional distribution. Evaluations of our approach with prominent AD datasets NGSIM I-80 and Argoverse show significant improvement over current state-of-the-art in both accuracy and generalization.