论文标题
COVID-19病毒的感染动态在锁定和重新开放下
Infection dynamics of COVID-19 virus under lockdown and reopening
论文作者
论文摘要
由Covid-19的激励，我们开发并分析了一个简单的随机模型，用于传播在人口中的疾病。我们跟踪被感染和重病的人的数量随着时间的流逝而发展，以估计医院系统征收的需求。为了控制这一需求，我们考虑了一类简单的政策，以减慢和重新开放社会，并比较它们在减轻几种不同观点的病毒传播方面的效率。我们发现，为了避免医院系统的压倒性，政策必须施加严厉的封锁，否则必须迅速做出反应（或两者兼而有之）。虽然迅速做出反应是普遍有益的，但只有在该国对重新开放的耐心以及邻国协调其缓解工作的何时有耐心的情况下，才能得到苛刻的回报。我们的工作强调了在关闭时果断行动的重要性以及邻国重新开放时耐心和协调的重要性。
Motivated by COVID-19, we develop and analyze a simple stochastic model for a disease spread in human population. We track how the number of infected and critically ill people develops over time in order to estimate the demand that is imposed on the hospital system. To keep this demand under control, we consider a class of simple policies for slowing down and reopening the society and we compare their efficiency in mitigating the spread of the virus from several different points of view. We find that in order to avoid overwhelming of the hospital system, a policy must impose a harsh lockdown or it must react swiftly (or both). While reacting swiftly is universally beneficial, being harsh pays off only when the country is patient about reopening and when the neighboring countries coordinate their mitigation efforts. Our work highlights the importance of acting decisively when closing down and the importance of patience and coordination between neighboring countries when reopening.
