论文标题
引入随机高阶模糊认知图作为储层计算模型:太阳能和负载预测中的案例研究
Introducing Randomized High Order Fuzzy Cognitive Maps as Reservoir Computing Models: A Case Study in Solar Energy and Load Forecasting
论文作者
论文摘要
模糊认知图(FCM)已成为一种可解释的签名加权挖掘方法,该方法由节点(概念)和代表概念之间的依赖性的权重组成。尽管FCM在各种时间序列的预测应用中取得了相当大的成就,但使用时间效率训练方法设计FCM模型仍然是一个悬而未决的挑战。因此,本文介绍了一种新型的单变量时间序列预测技术,该技术由一组标有R-HFCM的随机高阶FCM模型组成。所提出的R-HFCM模型的新颖性与将FCM和ECHO状态网络(ESN)的概念合并为有效且特定的储层计算系列(RC)模型,其中最小二乘算法适用于训练该模型。从另一个角度来看,R-HFCM的结构由输入层,储层层和输出层组成,其中仅输出层是可以训练的,而每个子储物库组件的权重则是随机选择的,并在训练过程中保持恒定。作为案例研究,该模型考虑了巴西太阳能电台的公共数据以及马来西亚数据集的太阳能预测,其中包括马来西亚乔霍尔市电源公司的每小时电力负载和温度数据。该实验还包括地图大小,激活函数,偏置的存在以及储层的大小对R-HFCM方法的准确性的影响。与其他方法相比,获得的结果证实了所提出的R-HFCM模型的表现。这项研究提供了证据,表明FCM可以是实施时间序列建模中动态储层的新方法。
Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) have emerged as an interpretable signed weighted digraph method consisting of nodes (concepts) and weights which represent the dependencies among the concepts. Although FCMs have attained considerable achievements in various time series prediction applications, designing an FCM model with time-efficient training method is still an open challenge. Thus, this paper introduces a novel univariate time series forecasting technique, which is composed of a group of randomized high order FCM models labeled R-HFCM. The novelty of the proposed R-HFCM model is relevant to merging the concepts of FCM and Echo State Network (ESN) as an efficient and particular family of Reservoir Computing (RC) models, where the least squares algorithm is applied to train the model. From another perspective, the structure of R-HFCM consists of the input layer, reservoir layer, and output layer in which only the output layer is trainable while the weights of each sub-reservoir components are selected randomly and keep constant during the training process. As case studies, this model considers solar energy forecasting with public data for Brazilian solar stations as well as Malaysia dataset, which includes hourly electric load and temperature data of the power supply company of the city of Johor in Malaysia. The experiment also includes the effect of the map size, activation function, the presence of bias and the size of the reservoir on the accuracy of R-HFCM method. The obtained results confirm the outperformance of the proposed R-HFCM model in comparison to the other methods. This study provides evidence that FCM can be a new way to implement a reservoir of dynamics in time series modelling.