论文标题
PCA-MRM模型以预测中纬度的TEC
PCA-MRM model to forecast TEC at middle latitudes
论文作者
论文摘要
伊比利亚半岛上的总电子含量（TEC）使用PCA-MRM模型基于观察到的TEC系列的分解，使用主组件分析（PCA）的分解，并使用多个线性回归模型（MRM）使用空间天气参数作为回归者对每日模式的重建。使用以下空间天气参数：太阳UV和XR通量的代理，不同类别的太阳耀斑的数量，太阳风的参数和星际磁场的参数以及地磁指数。使用TEC和太空天气参数之间的时间滞后为1和2天。 PCA-MRM模型的性能是使用2015年的数据测试的，既在地球上安静又令人不安的时期。该模型在安静的日子和几天内都具有太阳耀斑的表现，但没有地磁干扰。 MAE和RMSE指标的白天为3-3.5 TECU，夜间约为2 tecu。在地面上受到干扰的时期，模型的性能会恶化，但仅在白天：MAE和RMSE的订单为4.5-5.8 tecu，对于最强烈的地磁风暴而言，MAE和RMSE的性能可能会升至约13 tecu。
The total electron content (TEC) over the Iberian Peninsula was modelled using PCA-MRM models based on decomposition of the observed TEC series using the principal component analysis (PCA) and reconstruction of the daily modes amplitudes by a multiple linear regression model (MRM) using space weather parameters as regressors. The following space weather parameters are used: proxies for the solar UV and XR fluxes, number of the solar flares of different classes, parameters of the solar wind and of the interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic indices. Time lags of 1 and 2 days between the TEC and space weather parameters are used. The performance of the PCA-MRM model is tested using data for 2015, both geomagnetically quiet and disturbed periods. The model performs well for quiet days and days with solar flares but without geomagnetic disturbances. The MAE and RMSE metrics are of the order of 3-3.5 TECu for daytime and about 2 TECu for night-time. During geomagnetically disturbed periods the performance of the model deteriorates but only for daytime: MAE and RMSE are of the order of 4.5-5.8 TECu and can rise to about 13 TECu for the strongest geomagnetic storms.
