论文标题
使用摘要统计数据有针对性的最佳治疗方案学习
Targeted Optimal Treatment Regime Learning Using Summary Statistics
论文作者
论文摘要
个性化的决策,旨在根据个人特征得出最佳治疗方案,最近在许多领域(例如医学,社会服务和经济学)引起了人们的关注。当前的文献主要集中于估算单个来源人群的治疗方案。在现实世界中,目标人群的分布可能与来源人群的分布不同。因此,通过现有方法学到的治疗方案可能无法很好地推广到目标人群。由于隐私问题和其他实际问题,通常无法获得来自目标人群的个人级别数据,这使得治疗制度学习更具挑战性。我们考虑了当源和目标种群可能是异质的,从源人群获得的个人级别数据时,我们考虑了治疗制度估计的问题,只有从目标人群中访问了协变量的摘要信息,例如时刻。我们开发了一个加权框架,该框架通过利用可用的摘要统计数据来量身定制给定目标人群的治疗方案。具体而言,我们提出了一个校准的增强的对目标人群值函数的反相反概率加权估计值,并通过在预先指定的类别中最大化该估计器来估算最佳治疗方案。我们表明,即使使用灵活的半/非参数模型,提出的校准估计器是一致的,渐近地正常,并且可以始终如一地估计值估计器的差异。我们使用仿真研究证明了该方法的经验性能,并将实际应用于EICU数据集作为源样本,将模拟III数据集作为目标样本。
Personalized decision-making, aiming to derive optimal treatment regimes based on individual characteristics, has recently attracted increasing attention in many fields, such as medicine, social services, and economics. Current literature mainly focuses on estimating treatment regimes from a single source population. In real-world applications, the distribution of a target population can be different from that of the source population. Therefore, treatment regimes learned by existing methods may not generalize well to the target population. Due to privacy concerns and other practical issues, individual-level data from the target population is often not available, which makes treatment regime learning more challenging. We consider the problem of treatment regime estimation when the source and target populations may be heterogeneous, individual-level data is available from the source population, and only the summary information of covariates, such as moments, is accessible from the target population. We develop a weighting framework that tailors a treatment regime for a given target population by leveraging the available summary statistics. Specifically, we propose a calibrated augmented inverse probability weighted estimator of the value function for the target population and estimate an optimal treatment regime by maximizing this estimator within a class of pre-specified regimes. We show that the proposed calibrated estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal even with flexible semi/nonparametric models for nuisance function approximation, and the variance of the value estimator can be consistently estimated. We demonstrate the empirical performance of the proposed method using simulation studies and a real application to an eICU dataset as the source sample and a MIMIC-III dataset as the target sample.