论文标题
使用蒙特卡洛模拟对可靠性估计的比较研究，并应用于圆柱压力容器
Comparative Study on Reliability Estimation Using Monte Carlo Simulation with Application to Cylindrical Pressure Vessel
论文作者
论文摘要
设计产品的方法之一是基于可靠性的设计，其中通常使用故障概率代替安全因素。在该技术中，它不应小于预定值。对于正在处理该技术的设计师来说，选择适当的设计标准是一个具有挑战性的问题，尤其是在有各种标准的情况下。这类产品之一是圆柱压力容器，其在文献中提出了不同的标准，以计算爆发压力作为设计的起点。在本文中，我们将评估和比较各种爆发压力标准的性能，以估计用于样品压力容器的故障概率。对于每个标准，已经使用蒙特卡洛模拟来计算由于与主要设计变量相关的变化而导致的故障概率。设计参数包括材料特性和操作压力。首先，通过标准偏差分析确定了设计变量标准偏差的变化对计算出的爆发概率的影响。然后，进行灵敏度分析以评估每个爆发压力标准对设计变量大小变化的灵敏度。
One of the methods to design products is reliability-based design, in which failure probability is usually used instead of safety factors. In the technique, it should not be less than a predetermined value. Choosing the proper design criterion is a challenging problem for designers who are dealing with the technique, particularly, when there are various criteria. One of these kinds of products is a cylindrical pressure vessel which has diverse criteria proposed in the literature to calculate the burst pressure as a start point of the design. In this paper, we are going to evaluate and compare the performances of various burst pressure criteria in estimating failure probability which is used for a sample pressure vessel. For each criterion, Monte Carlo simulation has been employed to calculate the probability of failure due to variations related to major design variables. The design parameters include material properties and operating pressure. First, the effects of variations in standard deviations of the design variables on the calculated burst probabilities have been determined by standard deviation analysis. Then, sensitivity analyses were carried out to assess the sensitivity of each burst pressure criterion against changes in the magnitude of design variables.
