论文标题
如何避免没有竞争游戏？抢七规则的重要性
How to avoid uncompetitive games? The importance of tie-breaking rules
论文作者
论文摘要
如果一支球队的最终位置已经独立于循环锦标赛中剩下的比赛的结果，那么它可能几乎没有热情。这对出勤率有害，并且可以激发勾结和比赛。我们证明，胜利规则可能会影响这种情况的发生。通过模拟，在两个良好的打决犯规则，进球差和头对头记录的情况下，通过模拟量化了它的概率。在这些有四支球队和12场比赛的本垒打循环赛中，可以通过优先获得进球差异来促进四场比赛的竞争力，从而使小组排名中固定位置的机会在上一轮中至少降低了两个和通常的5个百分点。我们的发现得到了理论模型中灵敏度分析的支持，为如何设计排名系统提供了重要的教训。
If the final position of a team is already secured independently of the outcomes of the remaining games in a round-robin tournament, it might play with little enthusiasm. This is detrimental to attendance and can inspire collusion and match-fixing. We demonstrate that tie-breaking rules might affect the occurrence of such a situation. Its probability is quantified via simulations for the four groups of the 2022/23 UEFA Nations League A under two well-established tie-breaking rules, goal difference and head-to-head records. In these home-away round-robin contests with four teams and 12 matches, the competitiveness of the final four games can be promoted by giving priority to goal difference, which reduces the chance of a fixed position in the group ranking by at least two and usually five percentage points in the last round. Our findings, supported by sensitivity analysis in a theoretical model, provide important lessons on how to design ranking systems.
