论文标题

关于固体,液体和数字黄金期货的动态

On the Dynamics of Solid, Liquid and Digital Gold Futures

论文作者

Matsui, Toshiko, Al-Ali, Ali, Knottenbelt, William J.

论文摘要

本文通过使用以前曾使用合同的合同分析分析来研究期货价格波动和三种商品的基础的决定因素:黄金,石油和比特币(通常称为固体,液体和数字黄金)。从2017年12月18日至2021年11月30日的三个资产中提取现货和期货的每日价格以及到期,交易量和开放利息数据,我们发现交易量和开放兴趣的可能负面影响和可能的负面影响在所有三种资产中的波动性上都有意义,并在所有三种资产中塑造了早期的较早发现,并在油油前景中塑造了早期的发现。此外,我们发现到期对比特币和石油期货价格波动具有相对积极的意义。此外,我们的分析表明,成熟度会影响比特币和黄金的基础 - 证实了总体理论,即基础作为比特币和黄金的成熟度接近零 - 而石油在两个方向上都受到影响。

This paper examines the determinants of the volatility of futures prices and basis for three commodities: gold, oil and bitcoin -- often dubbed solid, liquid and digital gold -- by using contract-by-contract analysis which has been previously applied to crude oil futures volatility investigations. By extracting the spot and futures daily prices as well as the maturity, trading volume and open interest data for the three assets from 18th December 2017 to 30th November 2021, we find a positive and significant role for trading volume and a possible negative influence of open interest, when significant, in shaping the volatility in all three assets, supporting earlier findings in the context of oil futures. Additionally, we find maturity has a relatively positive significance for bitcoin and oil futures price volatility. Furthermore, our analysis demonstrates that maturity affects the basis of bitcoin and gold positively -- confirming the general theory that the basis converges to zero as maturity nears for bitcoin and gold -- while oil is affected in both directions.

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