论文标题
使用短期Covid-19预测模型的最佳锁定管理
Optimal Lockdown Management using Short Term COVID-19 Prediction Model
论文作者
论文摘要
本文提出了基于Active Covid-19的短期预测确认案件的最佳锁定管理政策，以确保关键医疗资源的可用性。从当前时间开始锁定的最佳时间是在考虑到经济价值的最大成本功能之后，受到医疗资源可用性的限制，以及每日增长率和测试正比率的最大允许价值。所需的医疗资源的估计值是根据总活动案例的函数计算的。使用自适应的短期预测模型计算活动案例的预测值。所提出的方法很容易由地方当局实施。使用拟议的公式提出了2021年4月第二次波浪期间德里的最佳锁定案例研究。
This paper proposes optimal lockdown management policies based on short-term prediction of active COVID-19 confirmed cases to ensure the availability of critical medical resources. The optimal time to start the lockdown from the current time is obtained after maximizing a cost function considering economic value subject to constraints of availability of medical resources, and maximum allowable value of daily growth rate and Test Positive Ratio. The estimated value of required medical resources is calculated as a function of total active cases. The predicted value of active cases is calculated using an adaptive short-term prediction model. The proposed approach can be easily implementable by a local authority. An optimal lockdown case study for Delhi during the second wave in the month of April 2021 is presented using the proposed formulation.
