论文标题

使用及时性跟踪感染

Using Timeliness in Tracking Infections

论文作者

Bastopcu, Melih, Ulukus, Sennur

论文摘要

我们考虑实时及时跟踪人群中个体的感染状况(例如,COVID-19)。在这项工作中,医疗保健提供者希望发现受感染的人以及那些尽快从疾病中康复的人。为了衡量跟踪过程的及时性,我们根据最新的测试结果,使用医疗保健提供者的实际感染状态与他们的实时估算之间的长期平均差异。我们首先找到了给定测试率,感染率和人恢复率的平均差异的分析表达。接下来,我们提出一种基于最小化的算法,以找到最小化平均差异的测试速率。我们观察到,如果总测试率受到限制,而不是同等地测试人口的所有成员,则只能根据其感染和恢复率计算的不等率测试一部分人口。接下来,我们表征当测量测量错误(即嘈杂)时的平均差异。此外,我们考虑了个体的感染状况可能取决于的情况,如果受感染者将疾病传播给另一个人,则如果没有被医疗保健提供者检测和隔离,则会发生这种情况。然后,我们考虑一个基于不正确的基于信息的错误度量的年龄,只要医疗保健提供者未检测到人们感染状况的变化,陈旧度量随着时间的推移会随着时间的推移而线性增加。在数值结果中,我们观察到,人口大小的增加会增加感染率不同和恢复率不同的人的多样性,这些人可能会利用这些人的多样性来更有效地支出测试能力。根据医疗保健提供者的偏好,可以调整测试率分配,以更快地检测被感染者或被恢复的人。

We consider real-time timely tracking of infection status (e.g., covid-19) of individuals in a population. In this work, a health care provider wants to detect infected people as well as people who have recovered from the disease as quickly as possible. In order to measure the timeliness of the tracking process, we use the long-term average difference between the actual infection status of the people and their real-time estimate by the health care provider based on the most recent test results. We first find an analytical expression for this average difference for given test rates, infection rates and recovery rates of people. Next, we propose an alternating minimization based algorithm to find the test rates that minimize the average difference. We observe that if the total test rate is limited, instead of testing all members of the population equally, only a portion of the population may be tested in unequal rates calculated based on their infection and recovery rates. Next, we characterize the average difference when the test measurements are erroneous (i.e., noisy). Further, we consider the case where the infection status of individuals may be dependent, which happens when an infected person spreads the disease to another person if they are not detected and isolated by the health care provider. Then, we consider an age of incorrect information based error metric where the staleness metric increases linearly over time as long as the health care provider does not detect the changes in the infection status of the people. In numerical results, we observe that an increased population size increases diversity of people with different infection and recovery rates which may be exploited to spend testing capacity more efficiently. Depending on the health care provider's preferences, test rate allocation can be adjusted to detect either the infected people or the recovered people more quickly.

扫码加入交流群

加入微信交流群

微信交流群二维码

扫码加入学术交流群,获取更多资源