论文标题
赛车:多模式概率人类运动预测
Motron: Multimodal Probabilistic Human Motion Forecasting
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
Autonomous systems and humans are increasingly sharing the same space. Robots work side by side or even hand in hand with humans to balance each other's limitations. Such cooperative interactions are ever more sophisticated. Thus, the ability to reason not just about a human's center of gravity position, but also its granular motion is an important prerequisite for human-robot interaction. Though, many algorithms ignore the multimodal nature of humans or neglect uncertainty in their motion forecasts. We present Motron, a multimodal, probabilistic, graph-structured model, that captures human's multimodality using probabilistic methods while being able to output deterministic maximum-likelihood motions and corresponding confidence values for each mode. Our model aims to be tightly integrated with the robotic planning-control-interaction loop; outputting physically feasible human motions and being computationally efficient. We demonstrate the performance of our model on several challenging real-world motion forecasting datasets, outperforming a wide array of generative/variational methods while providing state-of-the-art single-output motions if required. Both using significantly less computational power than state-of-the art algorithms.