论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Phases of MANES: Multi-Asset Non-Equilibrium Skew Model of a Strongly Non-Linear Market with Phase Transitions
论文作者
论文摘要
本文提出了一个可分析性的且实践意义的模型,该模型是多数资产的多资产市场的非线性动力学模型。资产价格动态是由金钱从外部投资者流入市场及其价格影响的驱动。这导致市场模型是与Langevin Dynamics相互作用的非线性振荡器的合奏。在同质投资组合近似中,所得的Langevin动力学的平均现场处理会产生McKean-Vlasov方程作为市场回报的动态方程。由于McKean-Vlasov方程的强非线性性,在模型参数的变化下,产生的动力学会导致牙齿破裂和一阶或二阶相变。使用作者先前针对单股票案例建议的非平衡偏度(NES)模型的可拖动潜力,新的多资产NES(MANES)模型可以为多资产市场提供一个可分析的可拖延框架。均衡的预期市场原木收回是McKean-Vlasov方程的自洽平均场,并根据标准普尔500指数选项的市场价格推断出的参数以封闭形式得出。该模型能够准确地适合良性或遇险市场环境的市场数据,同时仅使用单个波动率参数。
This paper presents an analytically tractable and practically-oriented model of non-linear dynamics of a multi-asset market in the limit of a large number of assets. The asset price dynamics are driven by money flows into the market from external investors, and their price impact. This leads to a model of a market as an ensemble of interacting non-linear oscillators with the Langevin dynamics. In a homogeneous portfolio approximation, the mean field treatment of the resulting Langevin dynamics produces the McKean-Vlasov equation as a dynamic equation for market returns. Due to the strong non-linearity of the McKean-Vlasov equation, the resulting dynamics give rise to ergodicity breaking and first- or second-order phase transitions under variations of model parameters. Using a tractable potential of the Non-Equilibrium Skew (NES) model previously suggested by the author for a single-stock case, the new Multi-Asset NES (MANES) model enables an analytically tractable framework for a multi-asset market. The equilibrium expected market log-return is obtained as a self-consistent mean field of the McKean-Vlasov equation, and derived in closed form in terms of parameters that are inferred from market prices of S&P 500 index options. The model is able to accurately fit the market data for either a benign or distressed market environments, while using only a single volatility parameter.