论文标题
直接Gibbs的后验推断风险最小化器:结构,浓度和校准
Direct Gibbs posterior inference on risk minimizers: construction, concentration, and calibration
论文作者
论文摘要
现实世界中的问题通常被用作机器学习应用,涉及具有现实世界中含义的兴趣数量,与任何统计模型无关。为了避免潜在的模型错误指定偏差或过度复杂问题制定,需要采用直接的,无模型的方法。传统的贝叶斯框架依赖于模型来生成数据,因此显然,所需的直接,无模型,后验型的推断是无法触及的。幸运的是,可能性函数不是链接数据和关注数量的唯一手段。损失函数提供了替代链接,其中定义了利息量,或者至少可以定义为相应风险或预期损失的最小化。在这种情况下,可以通过直接使用经验风险函数来获得通常称为Gibbs后分布的通常。该手稿探讨了吉布斯后构建,其渐近浓度特性以及其可信区域的频繁校准。通过摆脱模型规范的限制,Gibbs后代为现代统计学习问题的概率推断创造了新的机会。
Real-world problems, often couched as machine learning applications, involve quantities of interest that have real-world meaning, independent of any statistical model. To avoid potential model misspecification bias or over-complicating the problem formulation, a direct, model-free approach is desired. The traditional Bayesian framework relies on a model for the data-generating process so, apparently, the desired direct, model-free, posterior-probabilistic inference is out of reach. Fortunately, likelihood functions are not the only means of linking data and quantities of interest. Loss functions provide an alternative link, where the quantity of interest is defined, or at least could be defined, as a minimizer of the corresponding risk, or expected loss. In this case, one can obtain what is commonly referred to as a Gibbs posterior distribution by using the empirical risk function directly. This manuscript explores the Gibbs posterior construction, its asymptotic concentration properties, and the frequentist calibration of its credible regions. By being free from the constraints of model specification, Gibbs posteriors create new opportunities for probabilistic inference in modern statistical learning problems.