论文标题
折刀部分线性模型平均有条件分位数预测
Jackknife Partially Linear Model Averaging for the Conditional Quantile Prediction
论文作者
论文摘要
在许多经济应用中,频繁地估算了有关变量的有条件分位数,因为它可以提供全面的见解。在本文中,我们提出了一种新型的半参数模型,以预测有条件的分位数,即使所有正在考虑的模型都可能误指定。具体而言,我们首先构建了一系列非巢的部分线性子模型,每个型号具有不同的非线性组件。然后,应用了一个外出的交叉验证标准,以选择模型权重。在某些规律性条件下,我们已经证明,在最小化样本外平均分位数预测误差方面,所得模型平均估计器在渐近上是最佳的。我们的建模策略不仅有效地避免了指定在拟合部分线性模型时哪个协变量应该是非线性的问题,而且还会导致比传统基于模型的程序更准确的预测,因为通过交叉验证标准具有所选权重的最佳性。仿真实验和说明性应用显示,我们提出的平均模型比其他常用的替代方案优于其他替代方法。
Estimating the conditional quantile of the interested variable with respect to changes in the covariates is frequent in many economical applications as it can offer a comprehensive insight. In this paper, we propose a novel semiparametric model averaging to predict the conditional quantile even if all models under consideration are potentially misspecified. Specifically, we first build a series of non-nested partially linear sub-models, each with different nonlinear component. Then a leave-one-out cross-validation criterion is applied to choose the model weights. Under some regularity conditions, we have proved that the resulting model averaging estimator is asymptotically optimal in terms of minimizing the out-of-sample average quantile prediction error. Our modelling strategy not only effectively avoids the problem of specifying which a covariate should be nonlinear when one fits a partially linear model, but also results in a more accurate prediction than traditional model-based procedures because of the optimality of the selected weights by the cross-validation criterion. Simulation experiments and an illustrative application show that our proposed model averaging method is superior to other commonly used alternatives.