论文标题
将小麦与谷壳分开:动态社交网络中的贝叶斯正规化
Separating the Wheat from the Chaff: Bayesian Regularization in Dynamic Social Networks
论文作者
论文摘要
近年来,人们对使用关系事件模型进行动态社交网络分析引起了人们的兴趣。这些模型的基础是“事件”的概念,该概念定义为时间,发送者和接收者的某些社交互动的概念。关系事件模型旨在回答的关键问题是什么推动了参与者之间的社会互动。研究人员在研究中经常考虑大量的预测因子(包括外源变量,内源网络效应和各种相互作用效应)。但是,问题在于,使用过多的效果可能会导致模型过度拟合和I型错误率膨胀。因此,拟合的模型很容易变得过于复杂,隐含的社会互动行为变得难以解释。解决此问题的潜在解决方案是使用收缩先验施用贝叶斯正则化。在本文中,我们提出了使用四个不同的先验效果的平面先验模型,一种平坦的先验模型,具有正常先验的山脊估计器,具有拉普拉斯先验的贝叶斯套件的扁平先前模型,并提出了带有laplace先验的贝叶斯套件的贝叶斯正则化方法,并具有数值的估计量,该估计量具有数值的构造。我们为面向参与的关系事件模型和面向二元的关系事件模型开发和使用这些模型。我们展示了如何为这些模型应用贝叶斯正则化方法,并提供有关哪种方法最有效的见解,以及如何在实践中应用它们。我们的结果表明,收缩先验可以减少I型错误,同时保持相当高的预测性能并产生模型来解释社交网络行为。
In recent years there has been an increasing interest in the use of relational event models for dynamic social network analysis. The basis of these models is the concept of an "event", defined as a triplet of time, sender, and receiver of some social interaction. The key question that relational event models aim to answer is what drives social interactions among actors. Researchers often consider a very large number of predictors in their studies (including exogenous variables, endogenous network effects, and various interaction effects). The problem is however that employing an excessive number of effects may lead to model overfitting and inflated Type-I error rates. Consequently, the fitted model can easily become overly complex and the implied social interaction behavior becomes difficult to interpret. A potential solution to this problem is to apply Bayesian regularization using shrinkage priors. In this paper, we propose Bayesian regularization methods for relational event models using four different priors: a flat prior model with no shrinkage effect, a ridge estimator with a normal prior, a Bayesian lasso with a Laplace prior, and a horseshoe estimator with a numerically constructed prior that has an asymptote at zero. We develop and use these models for both an actor-oriented relational event model and a dyad-oriented relational event model. We show how to apply Bayesian regularization methods for these models and provide insights about which method works best and guidelines how to apply them in practice. Our results show that shrinkage priors can reduce Type-I errors while keeping reasonably high predictive performance and yielding parsimonious models to explain social network behavior.