论文标题
模拟研究中的陷阱和潜力：比较模拟研究中的可疑研究实践允许任何方法的优越性主张
Pitfalls and potentials in simulation studies: Questionable research practices in comparative simulation studies allow for spurious claims of superiority of any method
论文作者
论文摘要
比较模拟研究是用于基准测试统计方法的主力工具。与其他实证研究一样，模拟研究的成功取决于其设计，执行和报告的质量。如果没有仔细而透明地进行，他们的结论可能会产生误导。在本文中，我们讨论了各种可疑的研究实践，这些研究实践可能会影响模拟研究的有效性，其中一些研究无法被统计期刊中当前的出版过程检测到或阻止。为了说明我们的观点，我们发明了一种新的预测方法，没有预期的性能增益，并在预先注册的比较模拟研究中进行了基准测试。我们展示了如果采用可疑的研究实践，使该方法看起来比公认的竞争对手方法更好。最后，我们为研究人员，审阅者和其他学术利益相关者提供了具体的建议，以提高比较模拟研究的方法学质量，例如预注册模拟协议，激励中性模拟研究以及代码和数据共享。
Comparative simulation studies are workhorse tools for benchmarking statistical methods. As with other empirical studies, the success of simulation studies hinges on the quality of their design, execution and reporting. If not conducted carefully and transparently, their conclusions may be misleading. In this paper we discuss various questionable research practices which may impact the validity of simulation studies, some of which cannot be detected or prevented by the current publication process in statistics journals. To illustrate our point, we invent a novel prediction method with no expected performance gain and benchmark it in a pre-registered comparative simulation study. We show how easy it is to make the method appear superior over well-established competitor methods if questionable research practices are employed. Finally, we provide concrete suggestions for researchers, reviewers and other academic stakeholders for improving the methodological quality of comparative simulation studies, such as pre-registering simulation protocols, incentivizing neutral simulation studies and code and data sharing.
