论文标题

基于持久性太阳辐照度预测基准的分析

Analysis of persistence-based solar irradiance forecasting benchmarks

论文作者

Alonso-Suárez, Rodrigo, Aicardi, Daniel, Marchesoni-Acland, Franco

论文摘要

在这项工作中,我们分析了一套基于透明的指数的太阳辐照度预测的基准方法,即持久性和气候学和气候学的持久性,气候学,智能抗速度和凸组合(CC)。为了评估基准的边界,我们在分析中包括一种简单的最小二乘回归技术,该技术使用了最后五个样本。对于需要数据调整的方法,我们还通过不同的训练集分析了它们的变化。这项工作是针对日期的全球太阳水平辐照度进行的,具有10分钟和每小时的预测范围。我们的结果是在南美东南地区被称为PAMPAHúmeda的,确认了基准建议,表明CC方法对RMSD非常耐用,因为它具有与过去测量的更复杂的线性组合相同的性能。我们还观察到,基准根据度量标准具有不同的行为,因为一个度量标准的最急性基准不一定是另一个度量的最紧急情况。

In this work we analyse a set of benchmark methods for solar irradiance forecasting based on the clear-sky index, namely, persistence, climatology, smart-persistence and convex combination (CC) of persistence and climatology. To assess the boundaries of the benchmarks, we include in the analysis a simple least squares regression technique that uses the last five past samples. For the methods that need data adjustment, we also analyze their variation with different training sets. This work is done for intra-day forecast of global solar horizontal irradiance with 10-minutes and hourly forecast horizons. Our results, obtained in the south-east region of South America known as Pampa Húmeda, confirm the benchmark recommendation, showing that the CC method is exigent for RMSD as it achieves almost the same performance of the more complex linear combination of past measurements. We also observe that the benchmarks have different behavior depending on the metric, as the most exigent benchmark for one metric is not necessarily the most exigent for another.

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