论文标题

贝叶斯回归树模型中有影响力的观察

Influential Observations in Bayesian Regression Tree Models

论文作者

Pratola, Matthew T., George, Edward I., McCulloch, Robert E.

论文摘要

储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。

BCART (Bayesian Classification and Regression Trees) and BART (Bayesian Additive Regression Trees) are popular Bayesian regression models widely applicable in modern regression problems. Their popularity is intimately tied to the ability to flexibly model complex responses depending on high-dimensional inputs while simultaneously being able to quantify uncertainties. This ability to quantify uncertainties is key, as it allows researchers to perform appropriate inferential analyses in settings that have generally been too difficult to handle using the Bayesian approach. However, surprisingly little work has been done to evaluate the sensitivity of these modern regression models to violations of modeling assumptions. In particular, we will consider influential observations, which one reasonably would imagine to be common -- or at least a concern -- in the big-data setting. In this paper, we consider both the problem of detecting influential observations and adjusting predictions to not be unduly affected by such potentially problematic data. We consider three detection diagnostics for Bayesian tree models, one an analogue of Cook's distance and the others taking the form of a divergence measure and a conditional predictive density metric, and then propose an importance sampling algorithm to re-weight previously sampled posterior draws so as to remove the effects of influential data in a computationally efficient manner. Finally, our methods are demonstrated on real-world data where blind application of the models can lead to poor predictions and inference.

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