论文标题
具有共同响应和预测因子的高维矢量自动降压
High-Dimensional Vector Autoregression with Common Response and Predictor Factors
论文作者
论文摘要
降低量矢量自回旋(VAR)模型可以解释为监督因子模型,其中两个因子模型同时应用于响应和预测空间。本文介绍了一个新模型,称为媒介自动进度,具有共同的响应和预测因子,以进一步探索var框架中响应和预测因子之间的共同结构。新模型可以提供更好的物理解释并提高估计效率。结合张量操作,该模型可以轻松地扩展到任何有限级的VAR模型。使用梯度下降算法的高维估计,考虑了一种基于正则化的方法,并确定了其计算和统计收敛保证。对于具有普遍的横截面依赖性的数据,开发了响应的转换以减轻不同的特征值效应。此外,我们考虑了超高维度的因子加载中的其他稀疏结构。仿真实验证实了我们的理论发现,宏观经济应用在结构分析和预测中展示了所提出模型的吸引力。
The reduced-rank vector autoregressive (VAR) model can be interpreted as a supervised factor model, where two factor modelings are simultaneously applied to response and predictor spaces. This article introduces a new model, called vector autoregression with common response and predictor factors, to explore further the common structure between the response and predictors in the VAR framework. The new model can provide better physical interpretations and improve estimation efficiency. In conjunction with the tensor operation, the model can easily be extended to any finite-order VAR model. A regularization-based method is considered for the high-dimensional estimation with the gradient descent algorithm, and its computational and statistical convergence guarantees are established. For data with pervasive cross-sectional dependence, a transformation for responses is developed to alleviate the diverging eigenvalue effect. Moreover, we consider additional sparsity structure in factor loading for the case of ultra-high dimension. Simulation experiments confirm our theoretical findings and a macroeconomic application showcases the appealing properties of the proposed model in structural analysis and forecasting.