论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Burstiness of human physical activities and their characterization
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具，其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而，其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间，然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用，该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明，使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器，即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程，也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后，我们表明，当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声，甚至控制方程变得不准确时，我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测，从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
Human behaviour is heterogeneous and temporally fluctuates. Many studies have focused on inter-event time (IET) fluctuations and have reported that the IET distributions have a long-tailed distribution, which cannot be explained by a stationary Poisson point process. Such phenomenon observed in IET distributions are known as burstiness. Burstiness has also been reported for human physical activity, but the mechanism underlying it has not been clarified. In this study, we collected human physical activity data while specifying the age of the subjects and their situations (for example, children's play and adults' housework), and we analysed their event time-series data. We confirmed the burstiness in both children and adults. For the first time, burstiness studied in physical activities of children between the ages 2 and 5. We also confirmed that the characteristics of the IET distribution are unique to each activity situation. Our results may be critical in the identification of the burstiness mechanisms in human physical activity.
