论文标题
葡萄牙的COVID-19传输的分数建模和最佳控制
Fractional Modelling and Optimal Control of COVID-19 Transmission in Portugal
论文作者
论文摘要
最近使用了一个分数 - 隔室模型来描述葡萄牙COVID-19大流行第一波的真实数据[Chaos Solitons分形144（2021），Art。 110652]。在这里，我们修改该模型以纠正时间维度，并使用它来研究从2020年12月至2021年2月在葡萄牙发生的第三波COVID-19，并且在数量和后果上都超过了所有先前的波。然后以疫苗接种和预防措施作为对照制定和解决新的最佳控制问题。进行了成本效益分析，并讨论了获得的结果。
A fractional-order compartmental model was recently used to describe real data of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal [Chaos Solitons Fractals 144 (2021), Art. 110652]. Here, we modify that model in order to correct time dimensions and use it to investigate the third wave of COVID-19 that occurred in Portugal from December 2020 to February 2021, and that has surpassed all previous waves, both in number and consequences. A new fractional optimal control problem is then formulated and solved, with vaccination and preventive measures as controls. A cost-effectiveness analysis is carried out, and the obtained results are discussed.
