论文标题
就业政策对公司期望实现的影响
Impact of an Employment Policy on Companies' Expectations Fulfilment
论文作者
论文摘要
我们研究了智利的就业保护法(Ley deproteccióndelempleo,EPL)的影响,该法律允许在Covid-19-19大流行期间在特殊情况下暂时暂停工作合同,对企业对裁员的期望。我们使用针对国家领土上一组代表公司的每月调查。该面板数据允许在时间上关注公司,并分析其期望与实际实现之间的匹配,以建模他们的期望实现。我们通过允许适度效果的logit模型对期望实现的可能性进行建模。结果表明,对于那些希望解雇工人的公司,对于使用EPL的公司而言,最终与工作分离的几率是那些不使用EPL的公司的50%。使用EPL时,与大型公司宣布他们期望解雇工人相比,小型公司将其期望实现的可能性增加到11.9%。
We study the effect of Chile's Employment Protection Law (Ley de Protección del Empleo, EPL), a law which allowed temporal suspensions of job contracts in exceptional circumstances during the COVID-19 pandemic, on the fulfillment of firms' expectations regarding layoffs. We use monthly surveys directed at a representative group of firms in the national territory. This panel data allows to follow firms through time and analyze the match between their expectations and the actual realization to model their expectation fulfilment. We model the probability of expectation fulfilment through a logit model that allows for moderation effects. Results suggest that for those firms that expected to fire workers, for the firms that used the EPL, the odds they finally ended up with a job separation are 50% of the odds for those that did not used the EPL. Small firms increase their probability of expectation fulfilment in 11.9% when using the EPL compared to large firms if they declared they were expecting to fire workers.