论文标题

使用大数据集在未涂层位置支持水文气象探索和预测的时间序列功能

Time series features for supporting hydrometeorological explorations and predictions in ungauged locations using large datasets

论文作者

Papacharalampous, Georgia, Tyralis, Hristos

论文摘要

基于回归的水流区域化框架是围绕流域水文学,洪水频率分析及其相互作用的流域属性建立的。在这项工作中,我们通过制定并广泛研究了基于回归的水流区域化框架,从而偏离了这一传统路径,这些框架主要来自数据科学的通用时间序列序列特征,更确切地说是从各种此类功能中出现的。我们专注于28个功能,包括(部分)自相关,熵,时间变化,季节性,趋势,肿块,稳定性,非线性,线性,尖峰,曲率等。我们估计了511个流域的每日温度,降水和流量时间序列的这些特征,然后将它们与传统的地形,土地覆盖,土壤和地质属性合并。降水量和温度特征(例如,降水时间序列的光谱熵,季节性强度和降水时间序列的滞后1自相关以及温度时间序列的稳定性和趋势强度)是许多流量特征的有用预测指标。传统属性也适用于流域平均高度。还揭示了预测变量和因变量之间的关系,而频谱熵,季节性强度和流量时间序列的几个自相关特征比其他序列更具区域化。

Regression-based frameworks for streamflow regionalization are built around catchment attributes that traditionally originate from catchment hydrology, flood frequency analysis and their interplay. In this work, we deviated from this traditional path by formulating and extensively investigating the first regression-based streamflow regionalization frameworks that largely emerge from general-purpose time series features for data science and, more precisely, from a large variety of such features. We focused on 28 features that included (partial) autocorrelation, entropy, temporal variation, seasonality, trend, lumpiness, stability, nonlinearity, linearity, spikiness, curvature and others. We estimated these features for daily temperature, precipitation and streamflow time series from 511 catchments, and then merged them within regionalization contexts with traditional topographic, land cover, soil and geologic attributes. Precipitation and temperature features (e.g., the spectral entropy, seasonality strength and lag-1 autocorrelation of the precipitation time series, and the stability and trend strength of the temperature time series) were found to be useful predictors of many streamflow features. The same applies to traditional attributes, such as the catchment mean elevation. Relationships between predictor and dependent variables were also revealed, while the spectral entropy, the seasonality strength and several autocorrelation features of the streamflow time series were found to be more regionalizable than others.

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