论文标题

部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测

A novel activity choice and scheduling model to model activity schedules of customers and staff in Dutch restaurants

论文作者

Sparnaaij, Martijn, Yuan, Yufei, Daamen, Winnie, Duives, Dorine C.

论文摘要

199日大流行对世界产生了很大的影响。该病毒特别容易地在餐馆等室内空间中的人们中传播。因此,可以评估不同餐厅环境是否会影响病毒潜在传播的工具具有很高的价值。本文介绍的餐馆的新型活动选择和调度模型是较大模型的关键部分,该模型结合了行人动态建模和流行病学模型,以实现这一目标。这种新颖的活动模型可以在餐厅为客户和员工制定活动时间表,以供各种餐厅设置。该模型的一个关键功能是,它几乎不需要用户输入才能这样做,这很重要,因为预期的用户是餐馆老板。这些所有者既没有时间,也没有专业知识来处理复杂的投入。测试表明,该模型可以为员工和客户制作各种餐厅环境的面部活动时间表。测试还表明,不同的餐厅设置导致餐厅中人们之间的接触方式截然不同。因此,该模型可以为餐厅环境与病毒传播风险相关的有价值的见解提供宝贵的见解。当它与病毒的数据结合使用时,尤其是这种情况。因此,它显示了在这些大流行时期,尤其是活动选择和调度模型的相关性的行人动力学建模的高度相关性。

The Covid-19 pandemic has had a large impact on the world. The virus spreads especially easily among people in indoor spaces such as restaurants. Hence, tools that can assess if and how different restaurant settings can impact the potential spread of the virus are of high value. The novel activity choice and scheduling model for restaurants, presented in this paper, is a key part of a larger model which combines pedestrian dynamics modelling and epidemiological models to achieve exactly this. This novel activity model can produce activity schedules for both customers and staff at a restaurant for a variety of restaurant settings. A key feature of the model is that it requires little user inputs to do so which is important as the intended users are restaurant owners. These owners have neither the time nor the expertise to deal with complex input. Tests show that the model can produce face-valid activity schedules for both staff and customers for a variety of restaurant settings. The tests also show that different restaurant settings lead to distinctly different contact patterns between people in a restaurant. As such, the model can provide valuable insights into how a restaurant setting relates to the risk of virus transmission. This is especially the case when it is combined with data about the virus. Hence, it shows the high relevance of pedestrian dynamics modelling in these pandemic times and especially the relevance of activity choice and scheduling models.

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