论文标题
根据SmartCard交易估算从传统公共交通工具到灵活服务的潜在转变
Estimating the potential shift from conventional public transport to flexible services based on smartcard transactions
论文作者
论文摘要
我们假设，城市旅行者可能更喜欢灵活的交通方式，而不是常规公共交通（PT）进行非公布旅行，并根据2019年6月在以色列上制作的6300万个智能卡登机板的数据库来估算这种模态切换的可能性 算法。我们的主要发现是（1）常规的家庭工作家庭通勤者是少数派，占骑手的15％； （2）至少30％的PT旅行不属于任何集群，可以归类为偶尔； （3）绝大多数用户都进行了反复和偶尔的旅行。线性回归模型提供了偶尔登机次数的良好估计（R2 = 0.85），这是临时登机的数量，这是登机总数，一天中的时间和围绕旅行起源位置的土地使用组成的函数。我们得出的结论是，传统的PT可能会失去未来的灵活模式的大量城市骑行率。
We assume that urban travelers may prefer flexible modes of transportation over conventional public transport (PT) for making non-routine trips, and estimate the potential for such modal switch based on a database of 63 million smartcard records of PT boardings made in Israel during June 2019. The behavioral patterns of PT users are revealed by clustering their boarding records based on the location of the boarding stops and time of day, applying an extended DBSCAN algorithm. Our major findings are that (1) conventional home-work-home commuters are a minority and constitute less than 15% of the riders; (2) at least 30% of the PT trips do not belong to any cluster and can be classified as occasional; (3) The vast majority of users make both recurrent and occasional trips. A linear regression model provides a good estimate (R2 = 0.85) of the number of occasional boardings at a stop as a function of the total number of boardings, time of day, and land use composition around the location of trip origin. We conclude that the conventional PT may lose substantial urban ridership to the future flexible modes.
