论文标题
在流行病期间,医疗保健能力有限的流行期间合理的社会距离政策
Rational social distancing policy during epidemics with limited healthcare capacity
论文作者
论文摘要
在整个历史中,传染病的流行病都发生了严重的人类健康风险。在最近的流行病中,关于政策的辩论很多,包括如何以及何时对行为施加限制。决策者必须平衡复杂的目标,这表明需要定量工具。卫生服务是否可能被“不知所措”作为关键考虑因素。在这里,我们展示了昂贵的干预措施,例如对行为的税收或补贴,即使在不相称的情况下,也可以将个人的决策与政府的偏好确切结合。为了实现这一目标,我们开发了政府干预策略和个人均衡行为的嵌套优化算法。我们关注的是,医疗系统治疗患者的能力是有限的,并确定疾病动态尊重容量限制的条件。我们发现峰值感染的急剧下降,政府目标功能的最大最大感染成本下降。这与如果个人在没有政府干预的情况下做出决定,与逐渐减少感染形成鲜明对比。我们发现,当干预措施对政府昂贵时,最佳干预措施的差异较小,而政策转换的关键成本取决于干预措施的昂贵程度。
Epidemics of infectious diseases posing a serious risk to human health have occurred throughout history. During recent epidemics there has been much debate about policy, including how and when to impose restrictions on behaviour. Policymakers must balance a complex spectrum of objectives, suggesting a need for quantitative tools. Whether health services might be `overwhelmed' has emerged as a key consideration. Here we show how costly interventions, such as taxes or subsidies on behaviour, can be used to exactly align individuals' decision making with government preferences even when these are not aligned. In order to achieve this, we develop a nested optimisation algorithm of both the government intervention strategy and the resulting equilibrium behaviour of individuals. We focus on a situation in which the capacity of the healthcare system to treat patients is limited and identify conditions under which the disease dynamics respect the capacity limit. We find an extremely sharp drop in peak infections at a critical maximum infection cost in the government's objective function. This is in marked contrast to the gradual reduction of infections if individuals make decisions without government intervention. We find optimal interventions vary less strongly in time when interventions are costly to the government and that the critical cost of the policy switch depends on how costly interventions are.