论文标题
扎根的美国:跨越迁移网络的固定和隔离
Rooted America: Immobility and Segregation of the Intercounty Migration Network
论文作者
论文摘要
尽管人们认为美国是“流动性”,但在移民率下降了数十年后,该国可能已成为“根源的美国”。本文审问了关于限制移民的社会力量的挥之不去的问题,其经验重点是美国的内部移民。我们提出了一个系统性的,网络迁移流的模型,结合了反映移民系统内部动态的人口,经济,政治和地理因素以及网络依赖性结构。使用有价值的时间指数式的随机图模型,我们对2011年至2015年的县间迁移流的网络进行建模。我们的分析揭示了一种分割的固定模式,在这种模式下,较少的人在县之间以不同的政治环境,城市化水平,城市化水平和种族组成的方式迁移。使用“淘汰实验”探测我们的模型表明,每年将观察到大约460万(27%)的跨县跨移民是不起作用的分段固定机制。本文提供了内部移民的系统性观点,并揭示了在美国地理上不动的社会和政治分歧。
Despite the popular narrative that the United States is a "land of mobility," the country may have become a "rooted America" after a decades-long decline in migration rates. This article interrogates the lingering question about the social forces that limit migration, with an empirical focus on internal migration in the United States. We propose a systemic, network model of migration flows, combining demographic, economic, political, and geographic factors and network dependence structures that reflect the internal dynamics of migration systems. Using valued temporal exponential-family random graph models, we model the network of intercounty migration flows from 2011 to 2015. Our analysis reveals a pattern of segmented immobility, where fewer people migrate between counties with dissimilar political contexts, levels of urbanization, and racial compositions. Probing our model using "knockout experiments" suggests one would have observed approximately 4.6 million (27 percent) more intercounty migrants each year were the segmented immobility mechanisms inoperative. This article offers a systemic view of internal migration and reveals the social and political cleavages that underlie geographic immobility in the United States.