论文标题

预测组合:超过50年的评论

Forecast combinations: an over 50-year review

论文作者

Wang, Xiaoqian, Hyndman, Rob J, Li, Feng, Kang, Yanfei

论文摘要

预测组合在预测社区中非常蓬勃发展,近年来,预测的组合已成为预测研究和活动的主流的一部分。现在,由单个(目标)系列产生的多个预测组合通过整合从不同来源收集的信息来提高准确性,从而降低了识别单个“最佳”预测的风险。组合方案已从没有估计的简单组合方法演变为涉及随时间变化的权重,非线性组合,组件之间的相关性和交叉学习的复杂方法。它们包括结合点预测和结合概率预测。本文提供了有关预测组合的广泛文献的最新评论,并参考可用的开源软件实施。我们讨论了各种方法的潜在和局限性,并突出了这些想法如何随着时间的推移而发展。还调查了有关预测组合效用的一些重要问题。最后,我们以当前的研究差距和未来研究的潜在见解得出结论。

Forecast combinations have flourished remarkably in the forecasting community and, in recent years, have become part of the mainstream of forecasting research and activities. Combining multiple forecasts produced from single (target) series is now widely used to improve accuracy through the integration of information gleaned from different sources, thereby mitigating the risk of identifying a single "best" forecast. Combination schemes have evolved from simple combination methods without estimation, to sophisticated methods involving time-varying weights, nonlinear combinations, correlations among components, and cross-learning. They include combining point forecasts and combining probabilistic forecasts. This paper provides an up-to-date review of the extensive literature on forecast combinations, together with reference to available open-source software implementations. We discuss the potential and limitations of various methods and highlight how these ideas have developed over time. Some important issues concerning the utility of forecast combinations are also surveyed. Finally, we conclude with current research gaps and potential insights for future research.

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