论文标题
贝叶斯推理和证据交流
Bayesian Reasoning and Evidence Communication
论文作者
论文摘要
法医学者和从业者的许多资源,例如期刊文章,指导文件和教科书,在决定两个竞争主张之间时,如何以可能性比率(LR)的形式进行证据评估的价值。这些文本经常描述专家向司法系统中其他各方(例如律师,法官和潜在的陪审员)介绍其LR值的专家,但很少有文本明确地解决了收件人如何利用所提供的LR值。那些经常暗示或直接建议对贝叶斯规则进行混合修改的人,其中决策者将其先前的赔率与他人对LR的评估相乘,以获得其后部赔率。在本文中,我们说明了一个遵守贝叶斯推理的人如何以响应个人LR价值(或任何其他意见形式)的人来更新其个人不确定性,并强调混合方法是与贝叶斯推理的背离。我们进一步考虑了遵守贝叶斯推理的接收者对专家报告和证词的作用和理想内容的含义,并解决了对我们2017年论文的已发表回应(Lund and Iyer,2017年),我们以前认为混合方程不受贝叶斯推理的支持。
Many resources for forensic scholars and practitioners, such as journal articles, guidance documents, and textbooks, address how to make a value of evidence assessment in the form of a likelihood ratio (LR) when deciding between two competing propositions. These texts often describe experts presenting their LR values to other parties in the judicial system, such as lawyers, judges, and potentially jurors, but few texts explicitly address how a recipient is expected to utilize the provided LR value. Those that do often imply, or directly suggest, a hybrid modification of Bayes' rule in which a decision maker multiplies their prior odds with another person's assessment of LR to obtain their posterior odds. In this paper, we illustrate how someone adhering to Bayesian reasoning would update their personal uncertainty in response to someone else presenting a personal LR value (or any other form of an opinion) and emphasize that the hybrid approach is a departure from Bayesian reasoning. We further consider implications of recipients adhering to Bayesian reasoning on the role and ideal content of expert's reports and testimony and address published responses to our 2017 paper (Lund and Iyer, 2017), where we previously argued that the hybrid equation is not supported by Bayesian reasoning.