论文标题
建模大型疾病动力学
Modelling macroparasitic diseases dynamics
论文作者
论文摘要
在这项工作中，我们提出了一个通用框架，用于建模大型大型矿物的传播动力学，这些动力学在宿主中不繁殖如ascaris lumbricies，Trichuris Trichiura，Necator Americanus y Ancylostoma duodeNale。基本模型源自寄生虫密度依赖性交配概率的一般概率模型。在这里，我们考虑了宿主中寄生虫数量的负二项式分布的特定和常见情况。我们发现基本的生殖数，我们表明该系统以基本繁殖数的一定值表现出鞍形节点分叉。我们还发现了更普遍的宿主种群案例的模型的平衡和基本繁殖数。
In this work we present a general framework for the modeling of the transmission dynamics of macroparasites which do not reproduce within the host like Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura, Necator americanus y Ancylostoma duodenale. The basic models are derived from general probabilistic models for the parasite density-dependent mating probability. Here we considered the particular, and common case, of a negative binomial distribution for the number of parasites in hosts. We find the basic reproductive number and we show that the system exhibit a saddle-node bifurcation at some value of the basic reproduction number. We also found the equilibria and basic reproduction number of a model for the more general case of heteregeneous host populations.
