论文标题
使用实验性或观察数据具有已知倾向得分
High confidence inference on the probability an individual benefits from treatment using experimental or observational data with known propensity scores
论文作者
论文摘要
我们试图了解个人从治疗(PIBT)中受益的概率,这是一种不可估量的数量,必须在实践中受到限制。鉴于PIBT人群级别界限的先天不确定性,我们试图更好地理解其估计的错误范围,以辨别PIBT上的估计界限是否由于随机的机会而宽还是宽。为了实现这一目标,我们向边际PIBT的界限估计,并具有任何感兴趣的阈值,对于随机实验设置或倾向分数的观察环境。我们还得出结果,使我们能够在可学习的子组中了解PIBT中的异质性,这些子群体由预处理特征描述。这些结果可用于帮助我们对通过目标界限对PIBT的假设推断与Bootstrap方法相比,通过目标界限对PIBT的假设推断感兴趣的设置进行正式的统计功率分析和频繁的置信度语句。通过大型随机实验中的真实数据示例,我们还展示了我们的PIBT结果如何使我们能够理解估计值对条件平均治疗效果(CATE)的实际含义和良好性(CATE),这是个人基线协变量的函数。
We seek to understand the probability an individual benefits from treatment (PIBT), an inestimable quantity that must be bounded in practice. Given the innate uncertainty in the population-level bounds on PIBT, we seek to better understand the margin of error for their estimation in order to discern whether the estimated bounds on PIBT are tight or wide due to random chance or not. Toward this goal, we present guarantees to the estimation of bounds on marginal PIBT, with any threshold of interest, for a randomized experiment setting or an observational setting where propensity scores are known. We also derive results that permit us to understand heterogeneity in PIBT across learnable sub-groups delineated by pre-treatment features. These results can be used to help with formal statistical power analyses and frequentist confidence statements for settings where we are interested in assumption-lean inference on PIBT through the target bounds with minimal computational complexity compared to a bootstrap approach. Through a real data example from a large randomized experiment, we also demonstrate how our results for PIBT can allow us to understand the practical implication and goodness of fit of an estimate for the conditional average treatment effect (CATE), a function of an individual's baseline covariates.