论文标题

通过多级集群对大规模分层时间序列的有效预测

Efficient Forecasting of Large Scale Hierarchical Time Series via Multilevel Clustering

论文作者

Han, Xing, Ren, Tongzheng, Hu, Jing, Ghosh, Joydeep, Ho, Nhat

论文摘要

我们提出了一种新的方法来解决分层汇总的时间序列数据的问题,尽管它具有多个商业应用,但它仍然是一个研究的问题。我们在每个聚合级别的第一个小组时间序列,同时利用本地和全球信息。所提出的方法可以将分层时间序列(HTS)聚集为不同的长度和结构。对于常见的两级层次结构,我们使用Wasserstein距离与软dtw差异相结合,在离散概率度量的空间上采用了一个局部和全局聚类的组合目标。对于多层层次结构,我们提出了一个自下而上的过程,该过程逐渐利用较低级别的信息来进行高级聚类。我们的最终目标是提高实际应用所需的大量HTS的预测准确性和速度。为了实现此目标,首先为其集群代表的每个时间序列分配了预测,可以将其视为其代表的一组时间序列的“收缩先验”。然后,可以快速调整此基础预测以适应该时间序列的细节。我们从经验上表明,我们的方法在涉及大量HT的大规模预测任务的速度和准确性方面都大大提高了性能。

We propose a novel approach to the problem of clustering hierarchically aggregated time-series data, which has remained an understudied problem though it has several commercial applications. We first group time series at each aggregated level, while simultaneously leveraging local and global information. The proposed method can cluster hierarchical time series (HTS) with different lengths and structures. For common two-level hierarchies, we employ a combined objective for local and global clustering over spaces of discrete probability measures, using Wasserstein distance coupled with Soft-DTW divergence. For multi-level hierarchies, we present a bottom-up procedure that progressively leverages lower-level information for higher-level clustering. Our final goal is to improve both the accuracy and speed of forecasts for a larger number of HTS needed for a real-world application. To attain this goal, each time series is first assigned the forecast for its cluster representative, which can be considered as a "shrinkage prior" for the set of time series it represents. Then this base forecast can be quickly fine-tuned to adjust to the specifics of that time series. We empirically show that our method substantially improves performance in terms of both speed and accuracy for large-scale forecasting tasks involving much HTS.

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