论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Bayesian Modeling of Marketing Attribution
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
In a multi-channel marketing world, the purchase decision journey encounters many interactions (e.g., email, mobile notifications, display advertising, social media, and so on). These impressions have direct (main effects), as well as interactive influence on the final decision of the customer. To maximize conversions, a marketer needs to understand how each of these marketing efforts individually and collectively affect the customer's final decision. This insight will help her optimize the advertising budget over interacting marketing channels. This problem of interpreting the influence of various marketing channels to the customer's decision process is called marketing attribution. We propose a Bayesian model of marketing attribution that captures established modes of action of advertisements, including the direct effect of the ad, decay of the ad effect, interaction between ads, and customer heterogeneity. Our model allows us to incorporate information from customer's features and provides usable error bounds for parameters of interest, like the ad effect or the half-life of an ad. We apply our model on a real-world dataset and evaluate its performance against alternatives in simulations.