论文标题

部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测

Estimating and Mitigating the Congestion Effect of Curbside Pick-ups and Drop-offs: A Causal Inference Approach

论文作者

Liu, Xiaohui, Qian, Sean, Teo, Hock-Hai, Ma, Wei

论文摘要

遏制空间是城市道路网络中最繁忙的地区之一。尤其是近年来,乘车旅行和商业交付的迅速增加引起了大规模的接送/下车(Pudos),该途径占据了数十年前设计和建造的有限的路缘空间。这些PUDO可以堵塞路边利用并干扰主线交通流量,显然会导致严重的负面社会外部性。但是,缺乏一个分析框架,该框架严格量化并减轻了系统视图中普多斯的拥塞效应,尤其是在很少的数据支持和混淆效果的参与的情况下。为了弥合这一研究差距,本文开发了一种严格的因果推断方法,以估计普多斯对一般区域网络的拥堵效应。设置有因果图来代表PUDOS与交通速度之间的时空关系,并提出了一种双重和分离的机器学习(DSML)方法来量化Pudos如何影响交通拥堵。此外,开发和解决了重新路由公式,以鼓励乘客步行和交通流量重新路由以实现系统优化。数值实验是使用曼哈顿地区的现实世界数据进行的。平均而言,一个地区的另外100个单位可以在工作日和周末分别将交通速度降低3.70和4.54 mph。在工作日的中城和中央公园,在路边空间上使用Pudos的重新路由旅行可以分别将整个系统的总旅行时间和2.12%的途径降低2.44%和2.12%。还进行了灵敏度分析以证明所提出框架的有效性和鲁棒性。

Curb space is one of the busiest areas in urban road networks. Especially in recent years, the rapid increase of ride-hailing trips and commercial deliveries has induced massive pick-ups/drop-offs (PUDOs), which occupy the limited curb space that was designed and built decades ago. These PUDOs could jam curbside utilization and disturb the mainline traffic flow, evidently leading to significant negative societal externalities. However, there is a lack of an analytical framework that rigorously quantifies and mitigates the congestion effect of PUDOs in the system view, particularly with little data support and involvement of confounding effects. To bridge this research gap, this paper develops a rigorous causal inference approach to estimate the congestion effect of PUDOs on general regional networks. A causal graph is set to represent the spatio-temporal relationship between PUDOs and traffic speed, and a double and separated machine learning (DSML) method is proposed to quantify how PUDOs affect traffic congestion. Additionally, a re-routing formulation is developed and solved to encourage passenger walking and traffic flow re-routing to achieve system optimization. Numerical experiments are conducted using real-world data in the Manhattan area. On average, 100 additional units of PUDOs in a region could reduce the traffic speed by 3.70 and 4.54 mph on weekdays and weekends, respectively. Re-routing trips with PUDOs on curb space could respectively reduce the system-wide total travel time by 2.44% and 2.12% in Midtown and Central Park on weekdays. Sensitivity analysis is also conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed framework.

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