论文标题

具有专家启发和贝叶斯校准的物种分布建模

Species Distribution Modeling with Expert Elicitation and Bayesian Calibration

论文作者

Kaurila, Karel, Kuningas, Sanna, Lappalainen, Antti, Vanhatalo, Jarno

论文摘要

物种分布模型(SDM)是自然资源生态,保护和管理的关键工具。它们通常是通过科学调查数据培训的,但是由于调查价格昂贵,因此需要互补的信息来源来培训它们。为此,几位作者提出了使用专家的启发,因为当地公民和物质领域的专家可以持有有关物种分布的宝贵信息。例如,专家知识已被纳入SDM中,例如,通过信息知识的先验。但是,现有方法构成了与专家可靠性评估有关的挑战。由于专家知识本质上是主观的,并且容易出现偏见,因此我们应该最佳地校准专家的评估并推断其可靠性。此外,与仅使用调查数据相比,使用专家启发改善物种分布预测的例子也很少。在这项工作中,我们提出了一种新颖的方法,可以利用有关SDM中物种分布的专家知识,并证明它会导致明显更好的预测。首先,我们提出了专家启发过程,其中专家总结了他们对物种出现图的信念。其次,我们收集调查数据以校准专家评估。第三,我们提出了一个层次结构的贝叶斯模型,该模型结合了两个信息源,可用于对研究区域进行预测。我们采用我们的方法来研究春季产卵派鞋幼虫在芬兰海湾沿海地区的分布。根据我们的结果,与仅根据调查数据为条件的预测相比,专家信息可显着改善物种分布预测。但是,专家的可靠性也有很大差异,甚至通常可靠的专家在评估中具有空间结构化的偏见。

Species distribution models (SDMs) are key tools in ecology, conservation and management of natural resources. They are commonly trained by scientific survey data but, since surveys are expensive, there is a need for complementary sources of information to train them. To this end, several authors have proposed to use expert elicitation since local citizen and substance area experts can hold valuable information on species distributions. Expert knowledge has been incorporated within SDMs, for example, through informative priors. However, existing approaches pose challenges related to assessment of the reliability of the experts. Since expert knowledge is inherently subjective and prone to biases, we should optimally calibrate experts' assessments and make inference on their reliability. Moreover, demonstrated examples of improved species distribution predictions using expert elicitation compared to using only survey data are few as well. In this work, we propose a novel approach to use expert knowledge on species distribution within SDMs and demonstrate that it leads to significantly better predictions. First, we propose expert elicitation process where experts summarize their belief on a species occurrence proability with maps. Second, we collect survey data to calibrate the expert assessments. Third, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian model that combines the two information sources and can be used to make predictions over the study area. We apply our methods to study the distribution of spring spawning pikeperch larvae in a coastal area of the Gulf of Finland. According to our results, the expert information significantly improves species distribution predictions compared to predictions conditioned on survey data only. However, experts' reliability also varies considerably, and even generally reliable experts had spatially structured biases in their assessments.

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