论文标题
在多事件比赛中量化事件重要性的一般框架
A general framework to quantify the event importance in multi-event contests
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了一个统计框架，用于量化单一事件的重要性，这些事件不提供中间奖励，但在多项式比赛结束时通过奖励结构提供了隐式激励措施。将该框架应用于美国的初选，在美国，早期选举具有更大的重要性和影响力，我们表明日程安排变化可以减轻前负荷选举的问题。当应用于欧洲足球时，我们证明了与参赛者的比赛表现相关的量化事件重要性的实用性和有意义，以改善结果预测并提供公共利益的早期迹象。
We propose a statistical framework for quantifying the importance of single events that do not provide intermediate rewards but offer implicit incentives through the reward structure at the end of a multi-event contest. Applying the framework to primary elections in the US, where earlier elections have greater importance and influence, we show that schedule variations can mitigate the problem of front-loading elections. When applied to European football, we demonstrate the utility and meaningfulness of quantified event importance in relation to the in-match performance of contestants, to improve outcome prediction and to provide an early indication of public interest.
