论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
A Model for the Tropical Cyclone Wind Field Response to Idealized Landfall
论文作者
论文摘要
登陆后的热带气旋的影响不仅取决于风暴场的大小和结构。因此，在登陆后，风场的简单预测模型具有显着的潜在值。这项工作测试了现有的关于风结构和大小在海洋上的理论，可用于理想化的轴对称登陆实验，其中成熟风暴下面的表面瞬间干燥并单独或同时干燥。结构理论捕获了低级风场对强度和尺寸响应的不同类型的理想登陆的响应。风暴尺寸以遵循模拟时间相关的暴风雨强度与科里奥利参数VM（t）/F的比率通常可以预测风暴大风驱风机R34KT对内陆表面锻炼的短暂响应，尤其是对于中等中度的表面粗糙，无论干燥水平如何。考虑到强度演变的了解，上述结果结合在一起，产生了一个理论模型，该模型可以预测对理想化登陆的全切向风场响应。提供了现实世界登陆的示例申请，以证明其潜在的风险应用程序实用性。
The impacts of a tropical cyclone after landfall depend not only on storm intensity but also on the size and structure of the wind field. Hence, a simple predictive model for the wind field after landfall has significant potential value. This work tests existing theory for wind structure and size over the ocean against idealized axisymmetric landfall experiments in which the surface beneath a mature storm is instantaneously dried and roughened individually or simultaneously. Structure theory captures the response of the low-level wind field to different types of idealized landfalls given intensity and size response. Storm size, modeled to follow the ratio of simulated time-dependent storm intensity to the Coriolis parameter vm(t)/f, can generally predict the transient response of the storm gale wind radii r34kt to inland surface forcings, particularly for at least moderate surface roughening regardless of the level of drying. Given knowledge of the intensity evolution, the above results combine to yield a theoretical model that can predict the full tangential wind field response to idealized landfalls. An example application to a real world landfall is provided to demonstrate its potential utility for risk applications.
