论文标题

金融网络中的系统风险和进化稳定策略

Systemic-risk and evolutionary stable strategies in a financial network

论文作者

Saha, Indrajit, Kavitha, Veeraruna

论文摘要

我们考虑在任何时间实例中代表的财务网络,随着时间的流逝而演变的随机责任图。代理商通过彼此借来或直接贷款借来的信用工具连接,这些信贷工具会产生责任边缘。随着时间的流逝,这些随机边缘会被代理人修改(本地),因为它们从经验和(可能是不完美的)观察中学习。在合同期结束时(在任何时间实例)结束时,各种代理的负债可以表示为随机固定点方程的解决方案。我们的第一步是使用随机固定点方程上的最新结果来得出这些方程的解(渐近,每个时间渐变)。在任何时候,代理商都适应了两种可用策略之一,即风险或更少的风险投资,目的是最大化其收益。我们旨在研究驱动金融网络的这种复制器动态的新兴策略。从理论上讲,我们将复杂系统的分析减少到适当的普通微分方程(ODE)的分析。使用结果颂歌的吸引子我们表明,复制器动力学会收敛到两种纯进化稳定策略之一(所有风险或较小的风险剂);仅当观察结果不完善时,才能具有混合限制。我们使用详尽的蒙特卡洛模拟来验证我们的理论发现。动力学避免了系统风险制度的出现(大多数默认值)。但是,如果所有代理商都盲目适应风险策略,则可以导致系统性风险制度。

We consider a financial network represented at any time instance by a random liability graph which evolves over time. The agents connect through credit instruments borrowed from each other or through direct lending, and these create the liability edges. These random edges are modified (locally) by the agents over time, as they learn from their experiences and (possibly imperfect) observations. The settlement of the liabilities of various agents at the end of the contract period (at any time instance) can be expressed as solutions of random fixed point equations. Our first step is to derive the solutions of these equations (asymptotically and one for each time instance), using a recent result on random fixed point equations. The agents, at any time instance, adapt one of the two available strategies, risky or less risky investments, with an aim to maximize their returns. We aim to study the emerging strategies of such replicator dynamics that drives the financial network. We theoretically reduce the analysis of the complex system to that of an appropriate ordinary differential equation (ODE). Using the attractors of the resulting ODE we show that the replicator dynamics converges to one of the two pure evolutionary stable strategies (all risky or all less risky agents); one can have mixed limit only when the observations are imperfect. We verify our theoretical findings using exhaustive Monte Carlo simulations. The dynamics avoid the emergence of the systemic-risk regime (where majority default). However, if all the agents blindly adapt risky strategy it can lead to systemic risk regime.

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